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WHAT IF?
One of the best things about the National Pastime is
that the game lends itself so wonderfully to passionate arguments and
spirited speculation. And one of the fountainheads of such debate is
speculation about what might have been if history had played out
differently.
In the spirit of hot-stove league discussion, the
editors of The Baseball Encyclopedia have attempted to reconstruct
the careers of the greatest players in history, taking into account three
important factors:
- Length
of regular-season schedules;
- Wartime
military service; and
- Labor
disruptions.
There are many twists and turns in every player’s
life that no one can account for, nor can historical injustices be
corrected retroactively. Sadly, no one really knows what would have
happened if the color line was erased before 1947—other than that the
country, the game itself, and African American players would have been
much better off.
It’s impossible to make individual adjustments for
particular career-altering decisions about when a player was first called
up, how often he was injured, whether he should have been switched to a
different position, or whether a stubborn manager kept his future star on
the bench while playing a washed-up veteran. These individual
circumstances affect everyone differently. However, history can be
“rewritten” just a bit when it comes to major historical upheavals
like wars and labor disruptions. In these special cases, the larger event
affects everyone roughly equally.
The method used to tweak history is to take each
player’s actual level of performance (as expressed by his Batter-Fielder
Wins or Pitcher Wins) and adjust it proportionally for any years affected
by wartime service, strikes, or the 162-game schedule. BFW takes into
account a player’s performance when batting, fielding, and baserunning;
PW takes into account a pitcher’s performance while pitching, fielding,
and batting.
Player Overall Wins (POW). The sum of a
player’s Batter-Fielder Wins and Pitcher Wins over his career is called
his Player Overall Wins. POW is used in The Baseball
Encyclopedia to rank all players in baseball history, from Tommie
Aaron (POW –4.9 in seven seasons of mostly riding the bench) to his
legendary brother Hank (POW 81.3), from Mike Maddux (POW 0.0 in 15 seasons
of journeyman pitching) to his much better sibling Greg (POW 62.2 and
counting).
In terms of POW, a win is a win is a win—what
is being measured is how valuable a player was to his team, not how he
provided that value. While very complex calculations are used to compute
BFW and PW, the meaning is easy to understand. Each player “win”
means that the player’s team would be one game over .500 if that team
was otherwise composed of completely average players. A BFW of 5.0
means that the player by himself would have made an average team go
82-72 in a 154-game schedule. A PW of 3.0 means that the pitcher’s team
would go 84-78 in a 162-game season. Negative BFW or PW indicates a player
or pitcher was worse than average and caused his team to lose that number
of games.
BFW’s or PW’s of 3.0 or higher will usually make
a player an MVP candidate or a pitcher a Cy Young candidate. BFW’s of
PW’s of 6.0 or higher will usually cop a major award. A batter who was
worth 6 wins in one year had one of the 200 best seasons of all-time; a
pitcher worth 6 wins in one year had one of the 100 best seasons of
all-time. Barry Bonds was worth 8.8 Batter-Fielder Wins in 2003 for San
Francisco; Pedro Martinez was worth 10.0 Pitching Wins in 2000 for Boston.
This measurement may seem conservative when compared
to a slugger’s home runs and RBIs or an ace pitcher’s won-lost record
or the frequently overblown rhetoric about great players. But it’s
critical to remember that baseball is a team game where all nine players
are important. One of the fundamental facts about baseball is that one
player—no matter how great—cannot dominate the action like a great
quarterback or running back can in football or a great scorer can in
basketball. No baseball player can win the pennant all by himself if he
doesn’t have substantial support from his teammates.
Length of schedule. The 154-game schedule was
adopted in 1904. It lasted in the AL until expansion in 1961; in the NL,
until expansion in 1962. With expansion came the familiar 162-game
schedule. Because the longer schedule allows modern players to play more
games, we have pro-rated their seasonal wins totals to a 154-game standard
after expansion. Prior to 1904, the regular season was usually 140 games
or less; only in 1892, 1898, and 1899 did the NL play 150 or more games.
So those whose careers started in 1903 or earlier will receive an upward
adjustment to their seasonal totals.
Wartime Military Service. World War II was a
traumatic event for the National Game. While baseball avoided its greatest
fear—being shutting down—and even managed to preserve the full
154-game schedule, most big leaguers ended up in the military. Some, like
Hank Greenberg and Bob Feller, enlisted at the start of the war and missed
four or more seasons. At the other extreme, some players (e.g., Stan
Musial), managed to avoid Uncle Sam for several years and missed only one
season.
Unlike injuries--which are affected by individual
factors like a player’s age, weight, condition, playing style, and
off-field habits--serving one’s country in wartime is both unplanned
and, in many cases, compulsory. (Most men who enlisted in World War II
knew they would be drafted if they didn’t volunteer.)
Since the military only wants physically fit men,
it’s possible to project performance for the time lost to wartime
service by using the average of that player’s actual performance for the
years before and after he entered the military. This method isn’t
perfect, but it takes the player’s age and recent injuries into account
at that point in his career and provides a reasonable estimation of what
he might have done.
Labor Disruptions. As all contemporary
baseball fans know, labor strife has affected the game dramatically in the
past three decades. The first player strike in 1972 shortened the season
to about 155 games. The long player strikes of 1981 and 1994 caused the
cancellation of approximately one third of those seasons, and only 144
games were played in 1995 after the strike was finally settled. In each
case, players who were active in those years have their totals adjusted to
reflect the lost games.
The Envelope, Please. So, armed with
reasonable estimates of how the greatest players of all-time might have
performed if they didn’t have their careers interrupted by war or
strikes, who comes out on top when we rewrite history?
There isn’t much surprise about who is number one
as the great Babe Ruth retains his crown. However, when given credit for
his extensive military service, Ted Williams—called by many “the
greatest hitter who ever lived”—finishes a reasonably close second to
The Babe. Most other players move up or down a few ranks, depending on
when they played.
The players who gain the most from our historical
revisionism are all World War II veterans who spent at least three full
years in the military. In addition to Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Hank
Greenberg, Bob Feller, and Johnny Mize all make major upward moves,
reflecting how much of their careers were taken away from them. Luke
Appling, who missed less than two years, also benefits greatly.
Note that, even thought there is no POW adjustment
needed for players who played exclusively between 1904 and 1960 (unless
they played in 1918-19 or served in the military during World War II), a
player’s rank might still change as other players move up or down around
him.
| Rank |
Player |
POW |
Adj
POW |
Adj
Rank |
| 1 |
Babe Ruth |
129.0 |
131.1 |
1 |
| 2 |
Barry Bonds |
112.6 |
109.6 |
3 |
| 3 |
Nap Lajoie |
95.1 |
98.2 |
4 |
| 4 |
Walter Johnson |
89.9 |
92.3 |
5 |
| 5 |
Ted Williams |
87.0 |
117.2 |
2 |
| 6 |
Rogers Hornsby |
86.0 |
87.4 |
7 |
| 7 |
Ty Cobb |
85.5 |
86.8 |
8 |
| 8 |
Willie Mays |
84.6 |
89.6 |
6 |
| 9t |
Tris Speaker |
82.1 |
83.0 |
11 |
| 9t |
Honus Wagner |
82.1 |
84.0 |
9 |
| 11 |
Hank Aaron |
81.3 |
78.9 |
13 |
| 12 |
Mike Schmidt |
78.6 |
78.1 |
14 |
| 13 |
Cy Young |
77.0 |
83.7 |
10 |
| 14 |
Stan Musial |
76.0 |
80.6 |
12 |
| 15 |
Mickey Mantle |
72.9 |
71.5 |
16t |
| 16 |
Eddie Collins |
72.5 |
73.1 |
15 |
| 17 |
Rickey Henderson |
72.0 |
71.5 |
16t |
| 18 |
Lou Gehrig |
70.9 |
70.9 |
18 |
| 19 |
Joe Morgan |
67.4 |
64.9 |
20 |
| 20 |
Frank Robinson |
64.3 |
62.0 |
23 |
| 21 |
Grover Alexander |
62.9 |
69.2 |
19 |
| 22 |
Greg Maddux |
62.2 |
62.5 |
21 |
| 23 |
Roger Clemens |
61.7 |
60.0 |
25 |
| 24 |
Mel Ott |
60.7 |
60.7 |
24 |
| 25 |
Lefty Grove |
59.1 |
59.1 |
26 |
| 26 |
Jimmie Foxx |
58.7 |
58.7 |
27 |
| 27 |
Christy Mathewson |
56.3 |
57.3 |
28 |
| 28 |
Kid Nichols |
56.2 |
62.1 |
22 |
| 29 |
Jeff Bagwell |
53.6 |
51.8 |
33 |
| 30 |
Eddie Mathews |
52.1 |
51.5 |
35 |
| 31 |
Bobby Grich |
51.6 |
51.6 |
34 |
| 32 |
Warren Spahn |
51.4 |
55.5 |
30 |
| 33 |
Wade Boggs |
51.1 |
50.1 |
36 |
| 34 |
George Davis |
50.7 |
54.8 |
31 |
| 35 |
Tom Seaver |
49.1 |
47.8 |
39 |
| 36 |
Bill Dahlen |
48.5 |
52.2 |
32 |
| 37 |
Frank Thomas |
46.0 |
46.3 |
42 |
| 38 |
Joe DiMaggio |
45.8 |
56.7 |
29 |
| 39 |
Ozzie Smith |
45.7 |
43.9 |
45 |
| 40 |
Ron Santo |
45.3 |
43.2 |
50t |
| 59 |
Luke Appling |
42.4 |
47.6 |
40 |
| 83 |
Johnny Mize |
37.7 |
49.1 |
38 |
| 122 |
Hank Greenberg |
32.6 |
47.1 |
41 |
| 130 |
Bob Feller |
31.6 |
49.9 |
37 |
- Active
players in italics
- Boldface
indicates improved adjusted rank
Babe Ruth (1/1)
To say the least, Babe Ruth had an incredible year in
1918 with Boston, leading the AL in homers and slugging percentage as well
as going 13-7 on the mound. Had he been able to play a full year—the Red
Sox lost 28 games when the season was shut down early during World War
I—his season would have been even more impressive. When combined with
the 140-game season in 1919, Ruth gains two wins and stays comfortably
ahead of his challengers.
Barry Bonds (2/3)
Bonds lost significant time in 1994-95 because of the
player strike but is also downgraded because of playing in the modern,
162-game era. Therefore, Bonds, with more games to work with than many of
the great players in the past, drops behind Ted Williams when Teddy
Ballgame’s total are revised to account for his lengthy military
service. Bonds is the only player among the top 10 to actually lose wins
from his total.
Nap Lajoie (3/4)
The great second sacker, who played from 1896-1916,
also loses one place in the rankings even as his figures are adjusted
upward because of the typically shorter season prior to 1904. Lajoie was
at his peak as a hitter from 1897-1903.
Walter Johnson (4/5)
Like Bonds and Lajoie, Johnson loses one place
despite gaining a few wins. In 1918-19, The Big Train led the AL in ERA,
pacing the league with 23 victories in 1918 and 20 more in 1919. During
1918, the fearsome right-hander pitched “just” 39 games compared to 47
in the full 1917 campaign.
Ted Williams (5/2)
The biggest jump among the game’s elite goes to Ted
Williams, who due to several upward adjustments vaults from fifth to
second in the all-time rating of Player Overall Wins. Williams missed
three prime years serving in the marines during World War II, then lost
nearly two more years to the Korea War. Reasonable performance projections
for those five seasons make The Splendid Splinter the second best baseball
player of all time—though maybe only until Barry Bonds plays a couple of
more seasons.
Rogers Hornsby (6/7)
Hornsby, a great hitter and (at least early in his
career) a good infielder, was the NL’s best player in 1917 and 1919. In
1918, when baseball shut down in early September, he was having a
good--but not great--year. In 1919, the Rajah was again the NL’s best
player while the NL played just 140 games.
Ty Cobb (7/8)
In 1918 and 1919, Cobb won his 11th and 12th
batting titles. Losing nearly a month of games in each season boosts
Cobb’s POW, although The Georgia Peach still drops a slot as Willie
Mays’ jumps into sixth place.
Willie Mays (8/6)
Mays and Ted Williams were the greatest players to
lose time to the Korean War. Inducted into the army in early 1952, Mays
missed more than a season and a half at the start of his career, returning
to win the NL MVP in 1954. Despite having played more than 10 years in the
162-game era, Mays gains five extra wins, vaulting him into sixth place.
Tris Speaker (Tie 9/11)
Speaker gains a win for the time he lost in the
shortened 1918 and 1919 seasons but drops two places overall as others
move past him. In 1918, The Grey Eagle led the AL in doubles and fielding
range, and he was nearly as productive the following year.
Honus Wagner (Tie 9/9)
Wagner retired in 1917 and, therefore, never lost any
time due to World War I. However, the Flying Dutchman gets a small
adjustment for the years before the NL adopted the 154-game standard.
Between 1897 and 1903, Wagner captured two NL batting crowns and led twice
in doubles, triples, and RBI.
Hank Aaron (11/13)
Some of Aaron’s most productive seasons came after
the NL expanded and adopted a 162-game schedule, as The Hammer captured
three of his four home run titles from 1963-67. Aaron also picks up a
small bonus for losing a handful of games to the 1972 strike, when he
homered 34 times in 129 games. Despite these positives, the all-time home
run leader drops 2.4 wins and two spots when adjusted to a 154-game
season.
Mike Schmidt (12/14)
Schmidt debuted late in 1972 and missed that year’s
strike, but the next work stoppage took a big chunk out of one of his
greatest seasons. In 1981; the Phillies superstar led the NL in runs,
homers, RBI, walks, slugging, and on-base percentage while displaying his
Gold Glove everyday at the hot corner. Despite this, Schmidt loses half a
win overall because of the normalization of the 162-game season and drops
two places.
Cy Young (13/10)
It’s not clear whether Denton True Young could have
effectively shouldered more of a load then he did in his amazing 22-year
career, in which he won a record 511 games. Since 379 of his wins came
before 1904, however, Young certainly would have racked up more victories
had he played in longer seasons, thus promoting the original Cy to 10th
on the all-time list.
Stan Musial (14/12)
Musial missed just one year of his career to World
War II, spending only 1945 in the military, but it’s enough to move him
up to 12th place. In 1943, the Cardinals slugger won the
batting title and led the NL in hits, doubles, triples, slugging, and
on-base percentage. The next year, Stan the Man led in hits and doubles as
well as slugging and on-base. Returning in 1946, Musial topped the league
in runs, hits, doubles, triples, batting average, and slugging. Against
wartime pitching in 1945, who knows what Musial would have done?
Mickey Mantle (15/16 tie)
The star-crossed Yankees legend played his last eight
seasons with the expansion 162-game schedule. Because of his frequent
injuries, The Mick appeared in 140 or more games only three times after
expansion, even with the longer schedule. Prior to 1961, Mantle played at
least 140 games eight times.
Eddie Collins (16/15)
Collins’ career (1906-1930) was played entirely in
the 154-game schedule, although he missed time in two key seasons—1918
and 1919—because of World War I. While Collins was a bit past his prime
by then, he remained an excellent player.
Rickey Henderson (17/16 tie)
The greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history is
one of only two players on this elite list (the other being Ozzie Smith)
to have lost significant time in 1981 as well as in 1994-95. Henderson
paced the league in runs, hits, and stolen bases in 1981 in his third
season in the AL.
Lou Gehrig (18/18)
Gehrig is the highest-ranked player to undergo no
adjustment since the Iron Horse never lost time due to war and played his
entire career with the 154-game schedule.
Joe Morgan (19/20)
Little Joe played during two work stoppages in 1972
and 1981. He was a superb player in the former season and still productive
in 1981. Morgan loses 2.5 wins overall because of playing 162 games per
season over his entire career.
Frank Robinson (20/23)
In a career spanning 21 years (1956-76), Robinson
played with both the 154- and 162-game schedule and missed a little time
due to the 1972 strike while putting up some of the best numbers of any
hitter in history. Since many of his most productive seasons (1961, 1962,
1966, 1969) came after expansion, F. Robby loses more than two wins and
falls from the top 20.
Grover Cleveland Alexander (21/19)
The only active superstar to miss significant time
fighting in World War I, Alexander pitched just three games in 1918 and
“only” 30 in 1919. He was the game’s greatest pitcher from 1915-17
and again in 1920-21, and the adjustment for Pete’s lost performance
pushes him up two spots into the all-time top 20.
Greg Maddux (22/21)
When players went on strike in August 1994, Maddux
suffered as much as anyone. In both 1994 and 1995, he led the NL in ERA,
wins, complete games, and shutouts. He was such a great pitcher in
this period that the lost time due to the strike trumps the subtraction of
wins for playing in the modern era. As a result, Maddux moves up one slot
overall.
Roger Clemens (23/25)
Clemens drops two spots in the rankings due mostly to
the adjustment for the modern schedule. While a productive pitcher in
1994, Clemens had an off-year in 1995.
Mel Ott (24/24)
The Giants’ slugger played his entire career in
war-free, labor-trouble-free times on a 154-game schedule.
Lefty Grove (25/26)
The Athletics and Red Sox great dominated the
American League as few pitchers ever have from the late 1920s through the
end of the 1930s. He retired at age 41 in 1941. Though his POW is
unchanged
Jimmie Foxx (26/27)
Hitting 534 homers in any era is enough to gain a
place on the list of all-time greats. Foxx’s numbers aren’t adjusted
because, even though he played during World War II, he didn’t enter into
the service since he was already in his late 30s.
Christy Mathewson (27/28)
Mathewson’s totals are adjusted by a win since he
started his career in 1900, but “The Big Six” falls back one place as
others move ahead of him. The much admired Mathewson joined the army and
was injured by poison gas during a drill 1918, but he had already retired
in 1916 to manage Cincinnati.
Kid Nichols (28/22)
One of the biggest leaps in this list belongs to Kid
Nichols, who gains six wins because he played most of his career before
1904. A three-time league leader in victories, he was a consistently
excellent hurler for the Boston NL club in the 1890s, and he had enough
left to go 21-13 with the fifth-place Cardinals in 1904.
Jeff Bagwell (29/33)
Like most modern sluggers, Bagwell benefits from the
conditions of his time, including from playing a 162-game season. The
Astros slugger was having a historically great season in 1994 when the
strike hit. Unfortunately, it didn’t matter to him personally since he
suffered a broken hand when hit by a pitch the day before the strike
started. Therefore, there was no projected benefit to Bagwell for the
games he missed in 1994 and he drops four places overall.
Eddie Mathews (30/35)
Mathews loses only half a win in the adjustment from
the 162-game to the 154-game era, largely for his 1962-63 campaigns,
during which he led the NL in walks. The Braves great also drops five
places in the rankings.
Bobby Grich (31/34)
The slick-fielding, power-hitting second sacker
losses playing during the 162-game era are balanced out by his big gain
for 1981. Greatly underrated throughout his career, Grich was the AL’s
best player during that strike year--leading the league in home runs,
slugging percentage, and range.
Warren Spahn (32/30)
Spahnie made his big-league debut in 1942, then spent
the next three years in the army, where he saw combat in France and fought
in the Battle of the Bulge. He served In 1946, he posted an 8-5 record in
24 games, then won 21 the following year. Spahn would almost certainly
have been a significant contributor to the Braves from 1943-45 had he been
available to play. Despite losing a bit for having finished his career in
the 162-game era, he receives four extra projected wins for his military
service and jumps into the top 30.
Wade Boggs (33/36)
The modern 162-game season helped Boggs post
significantly better hit and walk totals than he would have in earlier
times. This is partially compensated for by the productive time he lost to
the 1994-95 labor problems. Boggs loses just one win overall as he falls
three spots in the rankings.
George Davis (34/31)
Davis and Bill Dahlen are the two players on this
list that many baseball fans know nothing about. A star all-around player
who settled at shortstop in 1897, Davis hit for average and power and
played outstanding defense. He played most of his career before the
154-game season was the standard, although he did have a major role in the
success of the 1906 Word Champion White Sox. Davis gains four wins and
three slots in the rankings.
Tom Seaver (35/39)
Tom Terrific’s career suffered quite a lot due to
the National Pastime’s recurring labor problems—he lost a start to the
1972 strike, then missed quite a few more in 1981 when he led the league
in wins and winning percentage. These factors mitigate his adjustment for
playing in the 162-game era, but he still loses more than a win overall
and drops toward the bottom of the top 40.
Bill Dahlen (36/32)
Like Davis, Dahlen was an outstanding two-way
shortstop who played most of his career in the nineteenth century. Davis
gains four wins leaps four spots upward.
Frank Thomas (37/42)
Big Frank’s power numbers are eye-popping, even
when adjusted to a 154-game scale. In fact, Thomas—the AL MVP in 1993
and 1994—was so great in 1994-95 (leading the AL in games and bases on
balls in both years, as well as on-base and slugging in 1995) that his
adjusted POW is actually higher even though he drops five places in the
rankings.
Joe DiMaggio (38/29)
Joltin’ Joe gains nine places in the adjusted
rankings, picking up 11 wins for the three seasons (1943-45) he lost
during World War II. While it’s possible that DiMaggio at age 28 was not
the same player who hit safely in 56 straight games in 1941 (Joe D.
“slumped” from .357 to .305 in 1942 and was bothered by repeated
injuries after the war), there’s no doubting that he remained a great
player. Three extra seasons would have put The Yankee Clipper’s career
totals near 2,800 hits and 420 homers.
Ozzie Smith (39/45)
The Wizard of St. Louis loses less than two wins.
Because of the crowded field of players with 40-45 POW, though, Ozzie
slips six places in the overall ranking. The stellar shortstop lost time
to both the 1981 and 1994-95 strikes. In 1981, however, he was playing on
the strength of his fabulous glove and had not yet become a good hitter
(OPS only .550). In 1994-95, Smith was 40 years old and well past his
prime.
Ron Santo (40/50 tie)
Though Bobby Grich partisans would put up a spirited
argument, Santo is called by many “the greatest player not in the Hall
of Fame.” The multi-talented yet underrated Cubs third baseman loses two
wins to the schedule adjustment, though Santo also drops 10 places into a
tie for no. 50 with Pedro Martinez.
Luke Appling (59/40)
Appling played until he was 43, missing almost two
seasons late in his career during World War II. The White Sox shortstop
led the AL in batting average and on-base percentage in 1943 while playing
every game at age 36. Gaining five wins, he also moves 19 places upward in
the overall rankings.
Johnny Mize (83/38)
The Big Cat lost three productive years while serving
in the Navy during World War II. His projected gain of more than 11 wins
puts his adjusted rank 45 slots higher at number 38, fitting for a great
slugger who has been somewhat forgotten as time has dimmed his memory.
Hank Greenberg (122/41)
The Tigers slugger vaults 81 ranks due to his lengthy
military service, gaining 14.5 extra wins for the more than four full
seasons he lost between 1941-45. The second big-leaguer to enlist in the
military during World War II, Greenberg joined the army in early 1941 and
was actually discharged two days before Pearl Harbor. He reenlisted
immediately. Greenberg led the AL in homers in both 1940 and 1946,
indicating that he would almost certainly have remained a dominant player
through the mid-1940s. “Hammerin’ Hank” is second only to Ted
Williams among position players in projected wins lost due to wartime
service.
Bob Feller (130/37)
Rapid Robert missed the end of 1941 season after
enlisting in the navy on December 8, 1941. He also missed all of the
1942-44 seasons while serving in Pacific in World War II, then returned to
make just nine starts in 1945. A spectacular power pitcher both before and
after his service time, Feller leaps 93 spots in the ratings, gaining more
than 18 extra wins to his POW total because he lost so much time in the
prime of his career.
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